IUCN Framework for assessing management effectiveness

The International Union for Conservation and Nature (IUCN) published their framework for management effectiveness in 2006 (2^nd version), which was mainly established for protected area management. Here, the central aspects of this framework (see Table 1) will be used to evaluate different mitigation actions for marine pollution. 

Table 1: Central aspects from the ICUN framework for management effectiveness

Framework: basis to design assessment systems, guidance about what to assess, broad criteria for assessment and evaluation tools to choose from
Purposes:
Better management in a changing environment	Effective resource allocation
Involvement (communities) & value promotion	Accountability & transparency
Stages:
1 Review the context & set up a vision	2 Planning
3 Allocation of resources (inputs)	4 Management actions (process)
5 Production of outputs	6 Resulting impacts (outcome)
Phases:
Define objectives, scope & provided means (resourcing)
Choose a methodology & set up indicators for ecological, social & economic factors
Interpret for lessons, communicate results & act upon them; establish as cyclic routine

Next, the given points need to be applied upon the two mitigation actions that are explored here, which is first the remote beach clean-up in Svalbard and second the clean-up of a central ocean gyre by Boyan Slat. The purposes of these operations are presumably the same ones as named in the framework. As for the stages, they supposedly are more or less pronounced the skeleton of all project management. Further, the phase in which the operations currently stand are different. Foremost the planning of the ocean gyre clean-up project is completed and fundraising is going on, but the action stage where the process itself will be launched is scheduled for 2020 (theoceancleanup.com). The Svalbard beach clean-up on the other hand was only conducted once until now, so there a cyclic routine need to be established for regular operations and the outcome requires further interpretation and communication. 

Global marine plastic debris amount estimation

Several estimates about the amount of plastics entering the ocean each year exist. Jambeck et al. (2015) estimate that amount to be about 8 million t, Hammer et al (2012) say it is 6.4 million t and Plastics Europe (2015) state it to be 10% of the plastics produced, thus 31 million t. Further, Eriksen et al. (2014) estimate that more than 260 000 t float on the surface while Cózar et al. (2014) say the floating mass should be some 10 000 t - and that it should be more, so a lot is removed by nano-fragmentation and ingestion, other sinks. So their number is still by far within the Eriksen estimate.

 

If these estimates are combined now - about 260 000 t floats (15%), then 260 000 t is washed ashore (15%) and 1 200 000 t sinks to the sea floor (70%) (Barnes et al, 2009). This is then 1.7 million t in total - but the annual input, according to Jambeck then is 8 million t. If any of the 3 input estimates here (6.4 million t, 8 million t or 31 million t) is anywhere near correct, then the total mass already existing in the ocean from about 50 year of incessantly increasing plastics production cannot be in the order of 1,7 t in total. With 15% washed ashore, where the waste still is in a marine ecosystem, maybe half of that is cleaned up. But a tiny part of the floating debris is cleaned up now and then as well and some other processes remove plastics that are ingested etc. Then in total approximately 10% of the debris entering the ocean is actually removed some way or another, which likely is an optimistic estimate. This would mean that 90% of the debris entering the ocean stays there. With lifetimes of the order of hundreds of year, the plastic can only be fragmented, but not biodegraded. Global annual plastic production started off with 1.5 million t in 1950, increasing steadily to over 300 million t nowadays (see Figure 2). The estimates from literature could probably be averaged to 10 million t for 2015, which is about 3% of the plastics produced. This number can then be used to calculate the total amount of plastic waste that must have entered the ocean since plastic production began in the 1950ies, which is approximated to be about 200 million tons (see Figure 3).  So instead of the given 1.7 million t of total marine debris from literature, the more fitting number of 200 million t in total will be used for illustrations and considerations of the marine debris picture. 

Figure 2: Growth in global plastic production 1950-2014, from Plastics Europe, the facts 2015

Year	plastic amount	estimated waste	Year	plastic amount	estimated waste
1950	1.5	0.045	1983	77	2.31
1951	2	0.06	1984	80	2.4
1952	3	0.09	1985	82	2.46
1953	4	0.12	1986	85	2.55
1954	5	0.15	1987	90	2.7
1955	6	0.18	1988	96	2.88
1956	7	0.21	1989	100	3
1957	8	0.24	1990	107	3.21
1958	9	0.27	1991	112	3.36
1959	10	0.3	1992	120	3.6
1960	11	0.33	1993	125	3.75
1961	12	0.36	1994	130	3.9
1962	13	0.39	1995	137	4.11
1963	14	0.42	1996	140	4.2
1964	15	0.45	1997	150	4.5
1965	16	0.48	1998	155	4.65
1966	18	0.54	1999	160	4.8
1967	20	0.6	2000	172	5.16
1968	25	0.75	2001	185	5.55
1969	28	0.84	2002	200	6
1970	30	0.9	2003	208	6.24
1971	32	0.96	2004	215	6.45
1972	35	1.05	2005	225	6.75
1973	38	1.14	2006	230	6.9
1974	40	1.2	2007	240	7.2
1975	44	1.32	2008	245	7.35
1976	50	1.5	2009	250	7.5
1977	55	1.65	2010	270	8.1
1978	62	1.86	2011	279	8.37
1979	65	1.95	2012	288	8.64
1980	68	2.04	2013	299	8.97
1981	70	2.1	2014	311	9.33
1982	75	2.25	2015	320	9.6
				6773	203

Figure 3: Approximated marine debris amount in million t, calculated with 3% of the plastics produced enter the ocean